ACCA考試：investment appraisal techniques that focus on risk！

掌握ACCA考試的知識(shí)點(diǎn)對(duì)學(xué)員來(lái)說(shuō)是掌握財(cái)會(huì)知識(shí)的關(guān)鍵，在備考ACCA考試的時(shí)候，學(xué)員要重視每一次知識(shí)的學(xué)習(xí)，同時(shí)也要重視ACCA課程的學(xué)習(xí)。今天融躍小編給大家分享，ACCA考試：investment appraisal techniques that focus on risk！

1、project value at risk (VaR)

a）量化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一個(gè)現(xiàn)代方法包括使用正態(tài)分布的概念估計(jì)投資價(jià)值的可能變化。A modern approach to quantifying risk involves estimating the likely change in the value of an investment by using the concept of a normal distribution.

b）VAR 的意義： VaR 提供一個(gè)項(xiàng)目的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的指示。

The VAR provides an indication of the potential riskiness of a project. For example, if A invests in project B then it can be 95% confident that the present value will not fall by more than €1,471,000 over its life. Hence the project will still produce a positive net present value. However, there is a 5% chance that the loss could be greater than €1,471,000. With project C, the potential loss in value is smaller and therefore it is less risky. It should be noted that the VAR calculations indicate that the investments involve different risk. However, the cash flows are discounted at the same rate, which they should not be, since the risk differs between them.

到底如何選擇，看投資者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)得好 risk appetite.

2、VS sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analysis：

Sensitivity margin of X = NPV / PV of X

Sensitivity margin of price = NPV/PVof revenue

Sensitivity margin of volume = NPV / PV of contribution

Sensitivity margin of discounting rate = ( IRR - dr)/dr

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